When the U.S. government stepped up immigration enforcement in 2025 and 2026, the conversation in Washington focused on border security and “protecting American jobs.” But the effects are stretching far beyond political talking points, touching multiple layers of the economy, from farms to factories to Main Street businesses. The data now shows that these policies are not simply reshaping immigration patterns; they’re reshaping the U.S. labor force and economic growth itself.
At the heart of the issue is a simple fact: immigrants make up a sizable share of the American workforce. Roughly 31 million immigrants were working in the United States in 2024, accounting for about 19 percent of the civilian labor force, according to U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data. Immigrant workers are even more concentrated in critical sectors: they make up 43 percent of farmworkers, 30 percent of food production and processing workers, and nearly 28 percent of construction workers. These roles are hard for many U.S.-born workers to fill in enough.
Since 2025, stricter enforcement — including boosted deportations, reduced legal immigration pathways, and cuts to programs that allowed foreign students and refugees to enter and work — has led to a significant decline in immigrant labor participation. One major policy analysis projected that by 2028 the U.S. labor force could shrink by as much as 6.8 million workers, and by 15.7 million by 2035, if current immigration limits stay in place. That would come largely from fewer new immigrant workers entering and increased departures of those already here.
Economists say this doesn’t simply mean fewer people on paper; it means real economic drag. The shrinking workforce is one reason the U.S. added fewer than 35,000 jobs per month on average in 2025, down sharply from earlier years, and why unemployment for U.S.-born workers ticked up from 3.9 percent to 4.3 percent in late 2025, despite official claims that “100 percent of net job creation” went to native-born workers. Many labor market analysts say the data doesn’t support that claim because fewer immigrant respondents in surveys automatically inflate the share of jobs held by U.S.-born workers without reflecting true gains.
In farm country, the effects are particularly stark. An academic study of intensified Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) raids in California’s Oxnard region found that up to 40 percent of agricultural labor vanished, costing growers $3 billion to $7 billion in crop value and pushing produce prices 5 percent to 12 percent higher. Farmers there warned that crops like strawberries and vegetables are especially vulnerable to labor shortfalls.
Across the broader food supply chain, labor shortages have ripple effects. The Week reported that up to 40 percent of some farm jobs are held by undocumented workers, and when enforcement pushes those workers away or into hiding, farms can’t sustain production. Many growers don’t use temporary visas like H-2A because they’re expensive and bureaucratic, which makes undocumented labor the practical backbone for many producers.
These shortages aren’t limited to agriculture. Construction companies, restaurants, landscaping firms, and hospitality businesses have also seen large declines. A Stateline analysis found that by August 2025, restaurants were down about 145,000 immigrant workers, construction about 127,000, and landscaping about 43,000 relative to the year before. Trade groups have testified that they need more foreign worker visas just to keep projects from stalling.
In states with a high share of immigrant labor, the local fallout is clear. An economic report noted that the ten states with the highest concentration of undocumented construction workers saw construction employment fall by 0.1 percent, while other states without such concentrations experienced growth. The hospitality sector’s labor force growth dropped as well, from 1.5 percent in June 2024 to just 0.2 percent in June 2025.
Economists also worry about long-term growth. With fewer workers entering the economy, overall output and GDP could grow more slowly. In one forecast, the reduction in labor might cut annual U.S. economic growth by nearly a third over the next decade compared with previous projections. Other researchers say immigration’s contribution to workforce growth was enormous. Immigrant workers accounted for about 85 percent of U.S. labor force growth between 2019 and 2024, and without that engine, growth stalls.
“It’s wrong to assume that a decline in immigration automatically benefits U.S. workers,” said Mark Regets, a labor economist and senior fellow at the National Foundation for American Policy, noting that lower job growth and a shrinking labor pool hurt overall economic prospects.
There is also a cost to stricter high-skill visa policies. The fee increases and tighter rules around H-1B visas, which many tech, engineering, and healthcare employers rely on, are seen as discouraging global talent. Economist Dany Bahar has said high visa costs send a damaging signal: “You are not welcome here,” undermining America’s ability to attract skilled workers who help create jobs and innovate.
Critics of the crackdown argue that employees should be hired from the domestic unemployed pool instead. Groups like the Federation for American Immigration Reform (FAIR) claim there are plenty of U.S. workers looking for jobs. However, labor market data doesn’t fully support this view: unemployment remains higher in some sectors, but many employers say the skills, willingness, or location of domestic job seekers don’t match available positions, especially in fields like agriculture and hospitality, where immigrants have traditionally filled the gap.
The ripple effects extend beyond labor markets into consumer demand and tax revenue. Immigrants accounted for about $1.7 trillion in economic activity in 2023 and paid $652 billion in taxes at the local, state, and federal levels. Reduced immigration shrinks not just the workforce but also consumption and tax contributions, potentially slowing broader economic growth.
In the end, the story of America’s immigration crackdown is not just about enforcement or border policy. It’s about how millions of people document and otherwise contribute to the jobs we rely on, the food we eat, and the communities where we live. Policymakers now face a central question: Does tightening immigration enforcement protect and strengthen the economy, or does it impose hidden costs that will be felt for years to come?
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