Are Machine Tool Orders Still a Go?

The third quarter closed on an uneven note for machine tool orders in the United States. Year to date, the numbers still look solid, but the month-to-month picture is softer, and the tone of the market is shifting. Shops are spending more money overall, yet they are buying fewer machines. It is a blend of confidence and caution that reflects the current state of U.S. manufacturing.

AMT’s U.S. Manufacturing Technology Orders report shows that manufacturers booked $493.1 million in new equipment during September. That number is down 7.2 percent from August but up 11 percent from last September. So, the month looked weaker on its own, but the broader view still shows growth. Total orders from January through September reached $3.93 billion, a 17.3 percent increase over the same period in 2024, and the strongest September since 2022. That is notable because last year’s September results were boosted by IMTS, which typically lifts order activity.

What stands out most in AMT’s report is the gap between spending and unit volume. Order values keep climbing, but machine counts continue to slide. September had the second-lowest unit total for September since 2009. Automation may be a factor, since newer machines tend to pack in more capability at a higher price, but AMT notes that recent gaps in federal labor data make it hard to confirm that trend. Even without hard numbers, the pattern is clear. Many buyers seem to be choosing fewer machines but investing in more advanced ones, whether for productivity gains, labor offsets, or new types of work.

Regionally, the picture is uneven. The North Central East region led September with $109.1 million in orders, up 25 percent from August, yet it still fell almost 10 percent behind its September 2024 total. In contrast, the Southeast and South-Central regions posted sharp year-over-year jumps, rising 54 percent and 63 percent, respectively. Those gains show that demand is spreading across the map instead of clustering in the usual strongholds. Contract machine shops, the largest buying group, continue to lag behind the broader market. Their September orders slipped 1.6 percent from August, and their year-to-date growth sits at 12 percent, noticeably behind the overall 17.3 percent increase.

The automotive sector delivered the strongest bright spot. Its order value reached a 2025 high in September, although the number of machines purchased remains low compared with other months this year. Automakers already poured huge sums into new equipment during 2021 and 2022, and that has kept recent activity subdued. Even so, orders through the first three quarters are up nearly 15 percent compared with 2024, driven partly by OEMs retooling lines away from pure EV production as they rebalance their model strategies.

The uneven mix of high spending and low unit counts raises several implications. Suppliers may find more opportunities in higher-spec machines than in volume sales, and may also need to adjust their regional strategies toward areas showing stronger year-over-year growth. Buyers appear to be more selective, making targeted investments rather than broad upgrades. The trend suggests manufacturers want smarter, more capable equipment, but are cautious about expanding total capacity until demand becomes clearer. With Q4 underway, the industry enters a period where every order will carry more weight. Values may stay elevated, but unit counts will tell the real story of whether demand is flattening or simply recalibrating.